Panel of 375 experts predicts net zero this century still most likely outcome, consistent with limiting global warming to around 2°C

The expert forecast suggests that, despite short-term policy volatility, the medium to long-term decarbonization expectations remain for the global economy to achieve net zero this century, an outcome likely consistent with limiting global warming to around 2°C.

The forecast highlights experts’ conviction that clean technology trends, cost competitiveness and accelerated climate impacts will drive economies to decarbonize more rapidly than current policy signals imply.

Unlike other scenarios or forecasts, IPR’s approach is unique in building its forecast entirely on the basis of expert sentiment and expectations. The survey represents the largest global survey of climate transition expectations, both in terms of geography, number of experts, and scope.

The 2025 Forecast from IPR saw experts become more pessimistic following the 2024 mega election year and policy changes from the US administration on climate and energy. The 2026 Forecast has seen stabilization of expectations despite policy rollbacks in some markets.

Core Findings:

• Experts remain optimistic about reaching net zero this century – consistent with achieving around 2°C warming.
• Clean energy, transport, and industry are forecasted to effectively decarbonize (>90% low-carbon technology penetration) across the majority of G20 countries by 2050.
• Despite 2030 deforestation targets being missed, ending net deforestation by the end of the 2030s is now the most likely outcome in both Brazil and Indonesia.
• More broadly, optimism in emerging markets – responsible for the majority of global annual emissions – continues to increase, with net zero emissions now expected 5 years earlier, relative to the 2025 forecast, in Indonesia, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Brazil.
• China meanwhile has now caught up with the United States in terms of expectations for net zero.
• Expert sentiment has overall stayed steady. 23% of forecasts were more optimistic, while 24% of forecasts were more pessimistic.
• International policy action on nature protection remained largely stagnant. This lack of concrete measures for halting deforestation or protecting vulnerable ecosystems indicates a growing disconnect between official commitments and the realization of biodiversity goals.

Jakob Thomä, Project Director, Inevitable Policy Response:

“Climate experts’ responses clearly demonstrate the transition is well under way. The assessments on net zero and temperature outcomes reflect this view. They also highlight that a single ‘global’ transition narrative has been overtaken by regional progress. Clean technology advances and investor responses are increasingly visible in the forecasts for individual nations.

Nature remains a lagging indicator, with 2030 targets at risk. This adds to the pressure on policy makers and investors to respond in implementing the existing commitments on nature.’’ 

Watch the Thursday 19th February Launch Webinar here. (https://public.unpri.org/news-and-events/past-events/webinars-on-demand) 

Download the Climate Transition Report 2026. 

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