Global Survey of 250 climate transition experts expects 80% emissions reductions for G20 countries by 2050s – with global net zero by 2070s

The Inevitable Policy Response has released its 2025 Transition Forecast.

The forecast represents the aggregated views of almost 250 international climate and policy experts surveyed post the US elections. IPR sought detailed insights on transition outlook across G20 nations, plus Nigeria and Vietnam, covering 79% of global economic activity and 74% of global energy use and CO2 emissions.

Core Findings:

Despite signs of a climate backlash in some political systems, transition experts were still positive about the long-term net zero transition and momentum in key sectors in the shorter term.

In terms of the overall net zero dynamic, G20 countries are expected to achieve 80% emissions reductions by the 2050s, significant from an investment trends perspective. While the majority of G20 countries are expected to miss their net zero goals, 40% are expected to achieve their net zero goals and no country is expected to miss their net zero goal by more than 15 years. In the longer term, crucially, the experts view is that a global transition to net zero will be achieved.

While the forecast is more pessimistic on the pace of the transition than previous IPR forecasts, which considered both survey data and market and policy trends, it puts the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C or below this century very much in play at a 67% probability.

Jakob Thomä, Project Director, Inevitable Policy Response:

“The 2025 IPR Transition Forecast exclusively uses an expert survey carried out post the US elections. Notwithstanding political changes, short term momentum is expected in key areas of the transition such as EVs and clean energy based on costs and past policy momentum.

The 2025 IPR forecasts also points to a now discernible divergence across global experts in terms of the beliefs around which countries will achieve their targets and which countries will miss them, and which sectors will lead the transition and which sectors will lag.

This development highlights the end of a one-size-fits all transition narrative, if such a narrative ever made sense to begin with. To better inform investor decision-making and adapt to more variation in pathways, future analysis needs to be increasingly bottom up and powered by conviction as to what the transition ultimately will look like.”

Download the full Media Release below.

Watch the Thursday 27th February launch webinar here.

Download the IPR 2025 Transition Report. 

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